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Thread Box:
fuck recession
Thread started by larsenf at 11.5.08 - 4:50 pm

fuck fuck fuck, why do we all gotta be so god damn poor. oh yea we're cyclists. so who else needs sympathy/a new job?

reply


fuck the recession

and my severe pay cut

fuck america

fuck capitalism

fuck bikes




ijunes
11.5.08 - 4:56 pm

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Well, people will still need the basic essentials, so my trucking prospects are still pretty high.

I talked to Knight Transportation a few, days ago.
They told me that since a year has already passed since that roll-over I had, and that I have four months with my current company, to apply anytime.

This job isn't necessarily better pay, but better equipment and staff that actually know their shit.

Although, I may hold over until December and get full, six months completed.

That way, my prospects are a little, more emboldened.

You see, the key to surviving a recession and/or depression is to research a career that isn't too, affected by big-ticket purchasing, get trained, then get better at it.

That's the way I see it any way.






bentstrider
11.5.08 - 4:59 pm

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buying your own semi is a pretty big ticket purchase, isnt it?

i need a job badly.



ruinedbyidiots
11.5.08 - 5:23 pm

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I would never buy my own rig.

All the regulatory troubles that go with it are something I can't even stomach.

My short-term, career goal for now is to just get hired back on with a larger, national carrier that utilizes Qualcomm and actually pays for maintenance on their own equipment.



bentstrider
11.5.08 - 6:22 pm

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"that utilizes Qualcomm"

Utilizes it for what?



toweliesbong
11.5.08 - 6:37 pm

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Or I should say how?



toweliesbong
11.5.08 - 6:39 pm

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FOR LOGISTICS, OF COURSE.



eddieboyinla
11.5.08 - 6:51 pm

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I'll blow dogs for quartes.....just to earn some cash.



Tarmonster.
11.5.08 - 6:59 pm

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Just come and ROOT it out!

But for cereal... Recession FTL



Jakuta
11.5.08 - 7:02 pm

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The Qualcomm "OmniTracs", system is basically just an oversized, text-messaging tool.
It consists of a small, dome on top of the cab, and a monitor/keyboard unit inside the cab.

Like Eddie said, it is strictly for better handling of logistical issues.

You need dispatch, mapping, and even pay-advances, you scroll through the macro numbers and enter the required info into templated fields.

This device, along with the PrePass(weigh-scale pass-over) units would make me want to join any company that has both.

Another thing I look for within a company is how they run and treat their drivers.

The only reason I talk alot of smack about the Bay Area is due to a little incident back in July.

I was out of hours and needed a ten-hour break to recoup.
Unfortunately, my dick-of-a-dispatcher put me on a re-load that would send me past two, CHP-inspection facilities.

If I was caught with bad-logs, it would be big-ass fine, and a court-appearance.
I was about to murder this guy once I got back to the yard, or at least put him in ICU for a few, months.

So, to avoid any incidences like that, I forcefully claim "DO NOT WANT", and accept something staying below the North.

Now, with a big company like Swift, or Knight, they actually give you a preplan-load and also ask you if you're legal to run beforehand.
If not, just hang back, see some sights, and call them back after 10 hours.



bentstrider
11.5.08 - 7:08 pm

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This isn't a recession folks. I've been watching the credit markets (to the extent they can be watched) and I think we're looking at a depression. The financial world is just stabilizing after this last disaster, but the REAL economy has yet to feel the effects of that crisis. When it does, those effects will cascade back on to Wall St, we'll get a second wave of financial shock, and things will then again get even uglier in the real economy.

I mean, take a look at a place like Nevada. 49% of people owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth, which is referred to as being "underwater". If they can't keep up their mortgage payments then when they sell they'll take on a ton of debt. A lot of them will go bankrupt and default, and then the bank will take a loss.

Banks don't take losses - that's not how they work. Not on a grand scale anyway. What do you think is going to happen to banks that are heavily invested in places like Nevada? We've already seen a little of it - belly up.

But here's the kicker - those banks are folding because of high default rates in earlier months (and cascading effects from those ) - they haven't even begun to deal with the defaults that are inevitably coming.

Get used to Franzing it - sleepin on other people's couches and sharing resources - I think we're looking at a serious retraction in quality of life.



Alex Thompson
11.5.08 - 7:22 pm

reply


i need a job too. Anyone in the Arch field?



Adrian_The_BEAST
11.5.08 - 7:41 pm

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"Get used to Franzing it - sleepin on other people's couches and sharing resources - I think we're looking at a serious retraction in quality of life."

No way. Although couchsurfing.com HAS made that lifestyle a lot easier.

Living a simpler less expensive life will continue to be a choice for most, not something you have to do due to a scarcity of resources.

For every individual/family that gets kicked out of a house due to a foreclosure, there's another individual/family that can pick up a house at a ridiculous discount.

Basically, what we're going to see over the next few years is several million people that never should have owned homes in the first place going back to being renters, while several million renters that have been saving their pennies and being responsible with their money will be able to their homes at a WHOPPING discount from the bank.

Meanwhile, the high-speed rail and mass transit projects that recently passed will provide more jobs to tens of thousands of Californians.

This will have a trickle-down effect for the cyclist crowd, as better transit infrastructure will make it easier to commute by bike/rail or bike/bus, so those that can see the writing on the wall and have some basic mechanical/retail skills will be able to start their own small businesses selling and repairing commuter bikes and gear, etc.

The web 2.0 revolution will continue, and with the low barriers and cost of entry, that's going to continue to allow folks with web / computer / networking skills to succeed quickly.

Our new president's emphasis on "green energy", and some of the new technologies coming online means that the Southwest is about to become a huge center for solar power.

Plus, since he's a Democrat, there will probably be significant growth in the government workforce, allowing plenty of people to get decent jobs with awesome benefits.

Plus, since he'll be liked by a lot more of the world than our current president, this will probably help the US become a little less insular than previously, which, combined with the need of the rest of the world to keep their economies going, could make it a good time to get into the import/export business, which, since we're adjacent to the largest port complex in America, would be pretty convenient for us.

There's a lot to be said for living simply, and within your means, but you should do so because you're motivated by compassion and common sense, not fear.

This is America, and there's lots of opportunity if you want it and are willing to work for it. Just get the resume updated, make sure your interview suit is clean and your shoes are shined (or your business plan is solid if you're going the entrepreneurial route) and go after it.

But if you're hoping the job fairy will show up at your apartment and offer you a high-paying job with no effort, you'll probably be disappointed. Indeed.com is a good place to start.



JB
11.6.08 - 10:05 am

reply


Right on with the housing issue.

I heard of people my age that had 4-5 kids and a job (usually home construction/real-estate) that was directly related to the side of the economy that failed.

They put a ridiculously low, amount of money down on a big, ass house that only a middle-aged, well-settled person could afford.

Then to top that off, they go out and purchase new dirtbikes and such for each kid.
Let's not forget the toy-hauler and heavy-duty pickup to do the hauling.

But, getting back to the bad part, all of this shit was purchased on low-down payments and the scheme to pay it back over 6-10 years, along with the house that was bought the same way.





bentstrider
11.6.08 - 10:31 am

reply


last month credit default swap prices rose to a record 31.3 points to "insure" treasury debt, compared to as little as 7.5 basis points in january. the US is very close to defaulting on it's debts or at the very least losing it's AAA credit rating. this will have an enormous impact on everything as the dollar loses its status as an international reserve currency. putin has already suggested that russia and china ditch dollar in trade deals.

also, food could get very expensive around the end of january. a major event is supposed to trigger a massive devaluation of the dollar; up to 50% overnight. instant depression.

those unpopular future decisions obama/biden/powell were talking about?? probably related to this.. except the decisions have already been made for them. the bird cage liner was changed just in time.




asparagus
11.6.08 - 10:37 am

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As far as food in the US goes, I thought we had the ability to grow and/or raise plenty of it here?

What gives?

Bad soil?, High-fuel?, Foreign control of domestic crops?, Farm-land turned into tract-housing?




bentstrider
11.6.08 - 10:49 am

reply


I think Phil Gram was right (if only once) that the recession is (at least partly) mental. Only he blamed Americans for being the problem.

The real problem is how depressing it is for so many people to have a president that is a ham-handed mush mouth, that has skated through life on the coattails of his families wealth and power.

Now that we have a new deal on the horizon ... I think people are going to be much more apt to feel positive and invest in the future.

If Obama would have sold us on fear and loathing, i think it would be different, but people essentially voted for hope, progress, and change.

When you have that many people acting on positive ideas ... I think a positive result is on the horizon.








trickmilla
11.6.08 - 11:03 am

reply


"also, food could get very expensive around the end of january. a major event is supposed to trigger a massive devaluation of the dollar; up to 50% overnight. instant depression."

Ooooh, the sky is falling! The sky is falling!

50% devaluation of the dollar?

Against what?

The dollar is valued against other currencies on the Foreign Exchange market, which means that in order for the dollar to plunge by 50%, something terrible would happen to the US that the rest of the world was immune from the effects of.

Pretty unlikely, given that we're the world's largest economy and the world's largest debtor nation, so anything bad that happens to the US has ripple effects around the world.

It's not like China and Europe are doing so hot right now.

Food getting expensive? Really? Given that most of this year's crops are already harvested, and we had bumper crops despite the flooding in the midwest that was supposed to cause problems, that seems pretty unlikely.

Any more info on this major event? I'd love to hear it.



JB
11.6.08 - 11:59 am

reply


I like how everyone now copies junes paragraph indention method of

internet posting



tallcans4tallbikes
11.6.08 - 12:19 pm

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pay attention. foreign investors are fleeing U.S. fixed income markets. the US may be unable to fulfill financial obligations in the near future. so something terrible has already happened; we just haven't been directly affected by it yet. a correction in the real economy is inevitable. it could be a catastrophic overnight collapse or a smooth incremental transition to a different type of financial system. either way it's going to have an impact on the food supply chain resulting in a price increase. it happens in many countries around the world; don't know why anyone would automatically assume the US is immune...

"Any more info on this major event? I'd love to hear it."

ask these guys:

"The problems will always be there, and there's going to be a crisis come along in the 21st or 22nd of January that we don't even know about right now. And so I think what the president has to do is to start using the power of the Oval Office and the power of his personality to convince the American people and to convince the world that America is solid, America is going to move forward, and we're going to fix our economic problems, we're going to meet our overseas obligations."
Colin Powell


"Remember I said it standing here. if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy. And he's gonna have to make some really tough -- I don't know what the decision's gonna be, but I promise you it will occur. As a student of history and having served with seven presidents, I guarantee you it's gonna happen,"
Joe Biden




asparagus
11.6.08 - 1:10 pm

reply


Well - I gotta go with asparagus here, albeit from a more conventional route. We're seeing a fundamental disconnect in financial fundamentals that's unprecedented. Today the Bank of England lowered it's interest rate by an unheard of, and record, 150 basis points. In turn, banks in the UK are not passing that lowered rate on to borrowers. That's absolutely flabbergasting . . . and the UK gov't is actually publicly exhorting banks to pass on the rate cut.

What you've got here is a financial system that was insanely leveraged and stabilized only by equally insane confidence. Now that confidence is shattered, and for good reason. So now, the system is collapsing.

The great depression wasn't so much a crisis brought on by any fundamental physical constraints on economy, as it was a crisis in the system which allocates resources - "the Market". We're looking at the same kind of scenario this time, but with the added issue that we have now, as a world, reached limits in many of our resources - including grain, fresh water (regionally), oil, and metals. Re organizing the economy to function again is no small task, and in the meantime a lot of people will be without reliable food or shelter.

Ride a bike.



Alex Thompson
11.6.08 - 1:23 pm

reply


If something happens, Obama will lay the smack down in no uncertain terms, and we'll get on with business as usual. (see, e.g. his plans for Afghanistan and "Pockistan")

That said, I bet nothing happens for a while while the rest of the world waits to see how he does.




JB
11.6.08 - 1:24 pm

reply


Alex Thompson you are a genius I agree with pretty much everything you're saying about the worsening state of things.

My own take on things is that our debt-based economy depends upon ever-continuing growth of the money supply to keep rolling.


Simply growing the money supply by printing money or loaning massive amounts of currency into existence without it being backed up by actual work ie: construction, infrastructure projects, war munitions etc..... will result in massive runaway inflation (coming soon...see Zimbabwe for a primer).

And what is at the base of economic growth...ENERGY...in our current paradigm this is OIL. We have depended upon growth in the global oil supply as a huge pillar of growth for over 100 years now. That growth in supply is basically over in any meaningful way now.


So in short: growth in energy supply=debt gets serviced=happy times
No growth in energy supply for prolonged amount of time=inability to pay future debt=easy times are over

Going forward I would say re-localize by building strong, interdependent communities and small local economies, grow a bit of food and/or reefer in the backyard, live simply





hybrid rida
11.6.08 - 5:03 pm

reply


So what do you suggest we do in the face of this "oncoming collapse"?

Seriously, hearing people talk about the "economic collapse" is as absurd as hearing Christians talk about "the Rapture" and for the same reasons.

Me, I'm pretty sure that there's no problem, given that oil prices have gone from $147 to about $60 in the last year, which isn't something that would happen if we were in imminent danger of running out.

The new offshore finds by Brazil and Cuba will add to the worlds oil supplies, and since we're in a recession and not producing as much, we've got enough oil to last us.

Add new solar technologies, algae based bio-fuels, and better wave/wind power generation, and we're looking at an energy abundant future.

The green revolution has made grain scarcity a thing of the past, especially as a lot of the climate effects of global warming are seeming to be drastically overstated.

Better recycling techniques and less demand from Asia mean we've got plenty of metal available.

Water still needs to be piped/aqueducted/desalinated in in some places, but that's been an issue since before the Romans built their aqueducts.

The banks in the US and the UK are using the cheap money given them by their governments to shore themselves up and buy out the weaker banks. This isn't exactly what the governments wanted them to do, but it will prevent additional bank failures and allow the economy to stabilize more quickly. As the banks stabilize, they will be able to take more risks and issue more credit, keeping the rest of the economy stable.

So, despite the temporary downturn in the Dow Jones, as amateur investors panic, and older wiser investors sell and reinvest 6 weeks later to be able to take tax write-offs on their investments, our economy's in no danger of collapse.

"Re organizing the economy to function again is no small task"

Indeed not. Good thing that won't be necessary.

"and in the meantime a lot of people will be without reliable food or shelter."

That's been the case for centuries in much of the world. If this is of concern to you, donate to Unicef or join the Peace Corps. But that's not going to happen in America anytime soon, exciting though it is to plan for the post-collapse economy where nobody needs anything as dreary as a day job.

But, if you're really concerned, get a couple of extra bikes, preferably single-speeds or fixies. You can share them with your bike-less friends for now, and if Armageddon does strike, you've got some fuel-free minimal maintenance transportation which will be worth a lot on the barter system.

We're going to continue to live in a world of abundance. We're going to have to get better at cleaning up after ourselves, but simple living will remain a lifestyle choice, rather than something we're forced into.

This is all to the good, as you can see all the people in China, etc. that have had "simple living" and bicycle transportation forced upon them by central planning and poverty.

What's the first thing they buy when they have the money?

Cars and SUVs.

Live well and simply by choice, and let others choose their lives.

But gain some marketable skills in the meantime, neither rapture nor Armageddon ever arrive before the bills and rent are due.




JB
11.6.08 - 5:40 pm

reply


U Said it, dude!!!



bentstrider
11.6.08 - 6:01 pm

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none of this whole mess is truly unprecedented. the general public hypes something up, not the fundamental value but the market value, other people make money off that rising value, everyone has money based on the superficial and overinflated value of that thing, "money" spreads throughout, lending comes too easily and too freely, people get stupid and borrow/gamble outside of their means, other people get greedy and take advantage of the stupid people (individuals and businesses) by lending excessively, there becomes a disconnect between the thing's fundamental value and its market value, the bubble pops, people who got involved get screwed, people who didn't directly get involved get screwed, consumer confidence gets fucked, lending dries up, recession ensues for a long time, some bottom hits, the economy slowly regains traction, people start making money, and then people make the same mistakes.

the primary difference today would be that america isn't the only country the world can turn to for imports/exports, but that doesn't preclude the economic cycles from occurring...

...fundamentally humans are humans. humans are selfish and greedy. that's not unprecedented. the mother teresas don't make up for the rest of us lemmings.

c'est la vie, mi amor!



azn invazn
11.6.08 - 6:02 pm

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Actually - there is a great deal that is unprecedented.

1) Consumer confidence hit the lowest value ever.

2) The financial derivatives that are currently wrecking havoc with investment banks were heavily regulated and more or less not used until recently.

3) Even those exotic financial instruments that did exist weren't used . . . there was no market for them.

4) Employment of mathematicians, something I have personal knowledge of, and employment of mathematical models was sky rocketed. Basically, until the mid 90s, a basic skill with arithmetic and logarithms was all that most traders needed. The large scale use of heavy statistical models is new.

5) The deregulation of mortgages and prevalence of risky lending practices is unprecedented.

6) People had invested their retirement savings in many of the troubled assets.

So there you go. A lot of people were playing a lot of games with something they barely understood and they happened to be doing it with the foundation of personal security for many - housing ownership.



Alex Thompson
11.6.08 - 6:49 pm

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lowest "value" ever? how is that quantified? (not saying it isn't or that it can't be, i'm just curious.)

financial derivatives are just bets on a future value. as a product these are new but the concept of betting is not. people get greedy and take risks by betting (ie the dutch tulip bulb bubble)

advanced mathematics in the markets is just another speculative method by which investors attempt to predict the market. in essence these methodologies have existed throughout market history, sure, relative to whatever sorts of mathematical models were known at the time -- so it doesn't make too much a difference in the scheme of things (in my personal opinion, it'll depend on your personal outlook) -- ie warren buffet

risky lending is not new ie 1920s

people are greedy and decide to invest other people's money in risky assets to gain a wider margin.

people play games with things they don't know because people are eager to invest in things that will make them money. people become greedy and make bets on riskier assets or assets for which the value is difficult or impossible to determine. nothing new.




azn invazn
11.6.08 - 7:15 pm

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my parents got kicked out because the person paying the mortgage on their rental couldn't pay up.

their business is suffering losess for this fiscal year.

i took an en enormous pay cut.

i can't find another job.

if this isn't a DEPRESSION

fuck it can't get much worse please





ijunes
11.6.08 - 7:17 pm

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See - ijunes story is the kind of story I'm hearing all over the place. In NYC the commercial vacancies are going nuts, and rents are falling fast. In DTLA several construction projects have stalled for lack of financing. There's a few people on this forum who can tell you some stories like ijunes' story.

Lets get our cards on the table. I'm sitting here taking a break from writing my PhD thesis in Mathematics. I just got back from a trip to NYC in which I talked to two derivatives traders about these things. One of them is my ex roommate, who got his PhD in Math too, and the went off and became the risk manager of a hedge fund.

When we were drunk I asked him about these very issues that you raise - are these mathematically complex financial instruments new? If so, why?

It surprised me that he said yes, they are pretty new. But his explanation made sense. Complex financial instruments have not been employed until recently because:

1) No one knew how to set the prices
2) Now that they do have an idea, they have to use massive computing power to price them - your PS3 is more powerful than a 1980s supercomputer. Don't underestimate the value of computing increases.
3) Many such instruments were heavily regulated if not illegal until substantial deregulation by the SEC in 1999.
4) Even if one firm wanted to sell, or buy, such instruments, they needed a pool of other firms from which to sell or buy. So, once the deregulation took place in 1999, it took time to develop a market.

What we're seeing is essentially the first time this market of exotic hedges has experienced serious volatility, and it turns out that it is not stable.

So basically, up until the early 90s, though such complex financial instruments were possible, they were impractical, and not always legal. Basically the main thing that was traded in terms of financial derivatives were the conventional options - puts and calls, shorts and longs.

So these things really are new (though not as a concept, as you correctly point out.)

And yes - there was risky financing before this, for example the 1920s . . . which landed us in the horrific depression.



Alex Thompson
11.6.08 - 8:01 pm

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The ripple effects are definitely happening. When I was in NY, I was talking with a friend who works at a culinary school there, and she told me that they're facing huge financial problems partly because none of the students they've admitted can get loans at even remotely reasonable rates. Even for someone with perfect credit, loans from Sallie Mae (the most reasonable available lender) were going for 11%, which is practically like funding your education entirely on credit cards. Understandably, a lot of potential students weren't too keen on that, and enrollment for the most recent term plummeted. This means that the school will be having trouble paying back the bond that they used for a recent expansion, so - *erk* - observe the credit crunch in action...

I just hope that the weird amalgamation of non-profit money and government grants that fund my various jobs won't be cut back too far. It seems like it would suck to have to search for a "real" job in this environment.

And regarding the idea that we "know" how to price all these fancy derivatives, doesn't that assume that we have an accurate understanding of the risks involved? It seems like the bubble fed on the fact that people were able to obfuscate the risks of all the "toxic" mortgage debts that got bundled into these CDOs and such. It's easy to blame the bubble on the wishful thinking of speculators, but loose regulation of the derivatives (and the credit rating industry) seems to be an equally large part of the problem.

Also, didn't Orange County go bankrupt by investing in derivatives bask in the 80s/90s? I remember seeing some TV news thing where the reporter was asking a financial expert "so where does all this money go?" and the expert just kind of threw up his hands and said "nobody knows!" I guess that this time around, we're finding out that a lot of the money was never really "there" to begin with.



nathansnider
11.6.08 - 9:37 pm

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Nathan,

Yeah - your observations about pricing and so forth are right. Do you remember when Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) went belly up during the Clinton Administration? Basically that was a "real" hedge fund that had been around since people started using the original hedging theorems that were developed in economics in the 70s. The way that stuff worked, as long different groups of prices which were correlated followed historical trends, LTCM was guaranteed to make money.

So what happened? The Asian financial crisis with all the currency nastiness, and then the Russian financial crisis. That broke the historical trends, so that where previously LTCM had one bet leveraged against another - so that if they lost on A they would make something back on B - now things were all leveraged to one side - so if they lost on A they would lose on B to. (sort of) Then basically they started losing money hand over fist.

So what this is all getting at is that when people say we "know" how to price these things, it means they know how to price them so that

a) They won't lose too much money
b) They can offset their risk

but this is only true if the markets "behave normally".

Unfortunately, all these entities had been assuming certain things such as "housing prices will not decline more than 10-20%." If you look back historically, that's never happened before. But we'd also never seen a bubble like this. A lot of people on the outside were warning that this assumption was unwarranted, but they were ignored.

So, part of what happened is that these assumptions proved to be wrong - ex: housing prices declined by much more than 20% - and it blew up all their models. And money. The difference is that EVERYONE has been doing what LTCM did then, and they're all going down together.



Alex Thompson
11.6.08 - 10:02 pm

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i'm not denying ijunesí story or anyone else's story for that matter. i'm arguing that the current state of the economy is explainable by the cycles caused by natural human greed. Itís not like I havenít felt the effects of the recession myself. i'm just saying that it's definitely happened before, it's going to unavoidably happen again, it still sucks, but that's because humans suck. (is there an argument there?)

if you want to get personal, for my job (for the time being, thanks, recession) i get to talk to investment advisers, hedge funds and plain vanilla alike, about their investment strategies, from black box algorithms to derivatives to good olí fundamental value investing, and on a pretty regular basis. in any case, if we're arguing about why recessions happen, in the grand scheme of economic cycles, i don't believe you need to be a full fledged computational mathematician to get what's going on. (Though i totally love math and sincerely think it's beautiful, so respect.)

and for petty argumentís sake:
- relative to the resources available, $$ capital (as a function of the human psyche ie consumer confidence) and technological among them, complex mathematical strategies aren't new. i agree that theyre "new" because they utilize advanced (a relative word) technologies available today, but theyll probably be considered obsolete later. In the grand scheme of things, strategies continue to develop (derivatives contracts algorithm-based models being among of them) to profit from the market. Market philosophies continue to innovate and evolve. Whereas in the 90s so many people praised hedge fund managers, many look now to Warren Buffet and starting to remember why heís the richest man in the world. i look to long term capital management and its similarly failed successor, platinum grove for my inspiration -- ie, math might be able to predict the market (a function of human behavior) in the short term involving lots and lots of risk, but in a grand scheme it's just another way for mega rich people to get mega richer
- derivatives as instruments werenít regulated by the SEC to begin with, nor are they regulated now, so that was never really an issue. Thatís why theyre considered so dangerous. unfortunately the SEC is a body swayed by politics and money just like any other.

as you mentioned, these investment vehicles which make huge bets can't function unless there's a counterparty wanting to take the other side of the bet, which likewise can't function unless it gets money from somewhere. human greed for profit (be it by the person who contributes money or by the person who end investor) by investing in risky strategies provides this capital. Given recent fallout, I donít know that many hedge funds are going to brag about employing interest rate swaps or black box strategies. And thus, a reaction to dried up liquidity caused by investor panic.

and so between my rambling and muddled arguments, I think the discussion really comes down to macro and micro viewpoints. I tend to take the macro stance, that everythingís okay in the end and if itís not okay then itís not the end. and on a similar note, in the end weíre all dead. and on that note, fuck recession! Too bad we canít do much about it since we all suck too!



azn invazn
11.6.08 - 10:09 pm

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so why, after the failure of ltcm and the resulting failure of the thai bhat and all that crap in russia, do people still throw money at these vehicles? because people are greedy and don't care. because hedge fund managers make hefty profits and being risky pays off. because idiots think they can pay off their mortgage with little or no income and put the rest on plastic, because banks take that "committed" collateral to make bets to make money, because hedge funds back bets to make money, because people freak out when everyone else loses money because people are idiots to begin with.



azn invazn
11.6.08 - 10:16 pm

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Damn Lianimal tore you guys a new one



tallcans4tallbikes
11.6.08 - 10:23 pm

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Not trying to get personal, but I wanted you to understand I'm not operating from the position of just reading WSJ or something.

Re: existence of financial instruments. The number and value is totally new. I mean, the nominal value of the credit default swap (CDS) market was estimated at $61 Trillion! This is a market that had a nominal value of around $14 Trillion just than 3 years ago. So, in terms of total size, this market is 75% of this market is newer than a preschool kid.

Look, the math to do these things was around 70 years ago. The computing power was not. The demand was not. The willingness to accept the risk was not. That's why the CDS was "invented" in 1997.

I don't understand this bit from the DTCC recently - it sounds as if they are saying that the CDS market has unwound to the point where there's only $34 Trillion in it now.



Alex Thompson
11.6.08 - 10:31 pm

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AT makes the point - it's not so much the novelty of the financial instruments, it's the sheer size of it that's lunacy. Another thing that really bothered me about the recent rise of technology in markets is algorithmic trading. Locating your servers closer to the main exchange ones to shave milliseconds off of your trade orders? Trading based on completely abstract mathematical models? There's no connection to the fundamentals underlying the value of the assets being traded, but everyone is doing it and it doesn't make any sense whatsoever, it's like market masturbation.



vladster
11.7.08 - 12:35 am

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the existence of complex derivatives isn't new. but their creation is caused by something that isn't, and that something will persist -- so whatever the immediate cause/underlying asset of the crash may be based on whatever tools are utilized to profit are used at the time -- human nature, ambition and greed + lemming behavior, won't go away.

the expansiveness of the the hedge fund industry which uses this stuff is crazy, especially considering the rate at which it grew. but at the most basic level, what caused it? what causes anything to gain traction at that speed?

as for the dtcc, the first shot at regulatory oversight for the derivatives market, and its estimation of the CDS market -- who the hell knows?

using 100% levered positions to "pick up pennies in front of a steam roller" is crazy. those who fund these ideas are loony. that sort of mathematics isn't able to overcome the rest of the lunatics who enable them to make money in the first place -- "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" -- increased globalization makes things crazier -- fundamentally this isn't new.



azn invazn
11.7.08 - 8:50 am

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these exotic financial products are only possible as a result of a criminal monetary policy. the money supply expands by the amount of interest owed on debt resulting in currency devaluation. the dollar has Lost 96% of it's value since the 1913 federal reserve act. in 2006 the fed quit publishing the M3 monetary aggregate so it's safe to assume that they did that so they can inject obscene amounts of currency into the money supply. printing money to solve economic problems can never be sustained. eventually, it will lead to debasing the currency and run-away inflation. what we have a here is a pyramid scheme and the suckers at the bottom are starting to figure it out.




asparagus
11.7.08 - 9:47 am

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Errthang will be aight.

Sure, maybe there will be catastrophic circumstances coming up but, errthang will be fine.

I suspect that a lot of the people losing their homes right now were the ones trying to flip houses and got caught on the bubble break.

The ones who were buying for the long haul bought because they could afford the payments. They are fine. The ones who are losing houses are the ones who never intended to make payments long term they were just going to hold on for 6 months and flip the house before the arm kicked in. The 700 billskis isn't going to these homeowners because they aren't looking to hold on to the house anyway. it is going to the banks.



Roadblock
11.7.08 - 10:04 am

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Hey asparagus,

Quit quoting Ron Paul's monetary policy.

He's wrong, and people who argue his points without looking into the matter further sound like idiots. The supply of money has expanded with the size of our economy, which is as it should be.

" the dollar has Lost 96% of it's value since the 1913 federal reserve act"

Really?

That may be marginally true, but it's also completely irrelevant.

Here's why:

If the dollar is worth 4 cents compared to what it was worth when the Federal Reserve started in 1913, that means the money supply has grown 25 times. (4 cents x 25 = $1). This would only financially enslave Americans and make them poorer if the average income had grown less than 25 times.

The average per capita income in 1913 was $800 a year, so the average American would be as well off in the present day if he or she made 25x as much, or $20,000 a year. Let's see what the actual facts are from the U.S. Census - http://pubdb3.census.gov/macro/032006/perinc/new01_001.htm

Hmmm, if we take EVERYBODY over the age of 15 and put them in the mix, the median income is $24,325, or 20% MORE, and for people aged 30-64, the median income is over $30k, or 50% MORE. So, even though we a dollar is worth 1/25th of what it was worth in 1913, the average American makes a fair bit MORE than 25x as much as in 1913, so WE'RE ACTUALLY DOING BETTER NOW!

Nobody forces Americans to go into debt, unless they are very poor. Debt is freely chosen, and while many of those who get into debt regret it substantially later, they have no one to blame but themselves.

As for the $62 trillion dollars in credit default swaps, we can probably expect to see some substantial regulation on that pretty soon.

Right now, these swaps are basically just like any other bet, and nobody loses money until the event underlying the swap occurs. If the governments crack down on these and declare any that haven't had the underlying event occur invalid, we could cut this potential enormous loss down to a tiny fraction of its previous size without anyone losing very much money.

Not to mention that a lot of banks are going both ways on these swaps, like any good bookie, so a lot of the outstanding losses will be canceled out by the gains on the other side.

Unemployment is going to go up for a while, and people are going to have to save their pennies, cut their expenses, and build their skills if they want to succeed. But that's pretty much what you have to do to succeed at any time.



JB
11.7.08 - 10:11 am

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remember after ww2 when germany was in debt to everyone and the just started printing more bills to pay everyone off and it took a wheelbarrow full of deutschmarks just to buy a loaf of bread?



ruinedbyidiots
11.7.08 - 10:15 am

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JB, i don't think you should be telling me what i need to quit doing. got it?







asparagus
11.7.08 - 10:23 am

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AZN INVAZN,

You asked about consumer confidence. When articles talk about a rise or fall in consumer confidence they are, almost always, talking about this - the Consumer Confidence Index.

As to the rest - I'm right, where y'all disagree you are wrong, fuck you, I'm going home!





Alex Thompson
11.7.08 - 10:37 am

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I apologize asparagus, you go right on ahead making a fool out of yourself.

Got it?



JB
11.7.08 - 10:44 am

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careful AT, Lianimial always gets the last word



tallcans4tallbikes
11.7.08 - 10:45 am

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Fuck it - lets make this thread about information!





Alex Thompson
11.7.08 - 10:47 am

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wOahBAMA will fix it!



Roadblock
11.7.08 - 10:49 am

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Alex Thompson -- re: the CCI thang, duh on my part.

whatevz. stuff happens in cycles. get comfy with people getting screwed even without your approval or freak out and go live on some rock remotely in the middle of nowhere and be a hunter gatherer. don't spend money on stupid shit (like clothes and hygiene, right ajd?), keep enough cash but invest to keep up with inflation, stuff will be okay. and on the same note, fuck recession.



azn invazn
11.7.08 - 10:54 am

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Lianimal never spends money on clothes OR hygiene that is for damn sure!



tallcans4tallbikes
11.7.08 - 10:58 am

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+1 Roadblock
+1 Azn Invazn



JB
11.7.08 - 10:58 am

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http://eleaston.com/chicken.html
The Story of Chicken Little

"Chicken Little"" is a story for teaching courage.

Don't be a chicken little. Don't be afraid. The sky is not falling.

Characters

Narrator
Chicken Little
Henny Penny
Ducky Lucky
Goosey Loosey
Turkey Lurkey
Villain: Foxy Loxy
Narrator: Chicken Little was in the woods one day when an acorn fell on her head. It scared her so much she trembled all over. She shook so hard, half her feathers fell out.

Chicken Little: "Help! Help! The sky is falling! I have to go tell the king!"

Narrator: So she ran in great fright to tell the king. Along the way she met Henny Penny.

Henny Penny: "Where are you going, Chicken Little?"

Chicken Little: "Oh, help! The sky is falling!"

Henny Penny: "How do you know?"

Chicken Little: "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"

Henny Penny: "This is terrible, just terrible! We'd better hurry up."

Narrator: So they both ran away as fast as they could. Soon they met Ducky Lucky.

Ducky Lucky: "Where are you going, Chicken Little and Henny Penny?"

Chicken Little & Henny Penny: "The sky is falling! The sky is falling! We're going to tell the king!"

Ducky Lucky: "How do you know?"

Chicken Little: "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head."

Ducky Lucky: "Oh dear, oh dear! We'd better run!"

Narrator: So they all ran down the road as fast as they could. Soon they met Goosey Loosey walking down the roadside.

Goosey Loosey "Hello there. Where are you all going in such a hurry?"

Chicken Little: "We're running for our lives!"

Henny Penny: "The sky is falling!"

Ducky Lucky: "And we're running to tell the king!"

Goosey Loosey: "How do you know the sky is falling?"

Chicken Little: "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"

Goosey Loosey: "Goodness! Then I'd better run with you."

Narrator: And they all ran in great fright across a field. Before long they met Turkey Lurkey strutting back and forth..

Turkey Lurkey: "Hello there, Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, and Goosey Loosey. Where are you all going in such a hurry?"

Chicken Little: "Help! Help!"

Henny Penny: "We're running for our lives!"

Ducky Lucky: "The sky is falling!"

Goosey Loosey: "And we're running to tell the king!"

Turkey Lurkey: "How do you know the sky is falling?"

Chicken Little: "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"

Turkey Lurkey: "Oh dear! I always suspected the sky would fall someday. I'd better run with you."

Narrator: So they ran with all their might, until they met Foxy Loxy.

Foxy Loxy: "Well, well. Where are you rushing on such a fine day?"

Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, Goosey Loosey, Turkey Lurkey (together) "Help! Help!" It's not a fine day at all. The sky is falling, and we're running to tell the king!"

Foxy Loxy: "How do you know the sky is falling?"

Chicken Little: "I saw it with my own eyes, and heard it with my own ears, and part of it fell on my head!"

Foxy Loxy: "I see. Well then, follow me, and I'll show you the way to the king."

Narrator: So Foxy Loxy led Chicken Little, Henny Penny, Ducky Lucky, Goosey Loosey, and Turkey Lurkey across a field and through the woods. He led them straight to his den, and they never saw the king to tell him that the sky is falling.





JB
11.7.08 - 11:04 am

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this was good til that last post oh well




tallcans4tallbikes
11.7.08 - 11:12 am

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"Basically, what we're going to see over the next few years is several million people that never should have owned homes in the first place going back to being renters, while several million renters that have been saving their pennies and being responsible with their money will be able to their homes at a WHOPPING discount from the bank. " - JB

Well said JB.
Although calling people names because you disagree with them is a sad business.


As for markets, I like what Tim Hanson of The Motley Fool has to say:

The simple fact is that our financial markets -- in the short term -- measure nothing more than investors' near-term outlook for the economy. With a little bit of confidence in the system, banks would start lending again, investors would start buying stocks again, and the global economy could begin to heal itself.

That, however, is not happening -- because we're not confident. We're pessimistic. A report released this week found that consumer confidence in the U.S. is at an all-time low, with one economist calling the data "extraordinarily awful."

But that extraordinarily awful data could prove to be very good for you, Joe the Investor.

...

Here's how
Chuck Akre isn't a professional baseball manager, like Joe Maddon is, but he's a similarly white-haired dispenser of plainspoken wisdom. He also happens to be a money manager who's had an extraordinarily bad year.

His FBR Focus Fund (FBRVX) is down more than 36% year-to-date, with holdings in American Tower (NYSE: AMT), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN) and CarMax (NYSE: KMX) having taken particularly hard hits.

Yet when Chuck stopped by our offices last week, he put aside his recent performance and said with a smile that times like these are "nirvana for the value investor." That's because good companies are on sale across the board for reasons that have nothing to do with their long-term intrinsic value.

Here's why
Chuck noted that there are three groups that might normally be buying stocks but for a variety of reasons are either sitting this market out or pulling money from the market. They are:

Individual investors, because they're scared witless.
Corporations, who aren't repurchasing cheap shares because they need to hoard cash to survive the credit crunch.
Hedge funds, which are going to cash, to meet demand for year-end redemptions.
That creates across-the-board artificial downward pressure on stocks, and it's the reason cash-rich names such as Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) were selling earlier this week for less than 10 times this year's free cash flow.

Again, that's nirvana for the value investor.






Eric Hair
11.7.08 - 11:21 am

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messing with headers is also sucks. alex, i had chips for lunch today!!



azn invazn
11.7.08 - 11:21 am

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Lianimal you so stingy! Eat some real food, that's why yer so runty



tallcans4tallbikes
11.7.08 - 11:24 am

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repost w/o the bullshit formatting.

"Basically, what we're going to see over the next few years is several million people that never should have owned homes in the first place going back to being renters, while several million renters that have been saving their pennies and being responsible with their money will be able to their homes at a WHOPPING discount from the bank. " - JB

Well said JB.
Although calling people names because you disagree with them is a sad business.


As for markets, I like what Tim Hanson of The Motley Fool has to say:

The simple fact is that our financial markets -- in the short term -- measure nothing more than investors' near-term outlook for the economy. With a little bit of confidence in the system, banks would start lending again, investors would start buying stocks again, and the global economy could begin to heal itself.

That, however, is not happening -- because we're not confident. We're pessimistic. A report released this week found that consumer confidence in the U.S. is at an all-time low, with one economist calling the data "extraordinarily awful."

But that extraordinarily awful data could prove to be very good for you, Joe the Investor.

...

Here's how
Chuck Akre isn't a professional baseball manager, like Joe Maddon is, but he's a similarly white-haired dispenser of plainspoken wisdom. He also happens to be a money manager who's had an extraordinarily bad year.

His FBR Focus Fund (FBRVX) is down more than 36% year-to-date, with holdings in American Tower (NYSE: AMT), Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN) and CarMax (NYSE: KMX) having taken particularly hard hits.

Yet when Chuck stopped by our offices last week, he put aside his recent performance and said with a smile that times like these are "nirvana for the value investor." That's because good companies are on sale across the board for reasons that have nothing to do with their long-term intrinsic value.

Here's why
Chuck noted that there are three groups that might normally be buying stocks but for a variety of reasons are either sitting this market out or pulling money from the market. They are:

Individual investors, because they're scared witless.
Corporations, who aren't repurchasing cheap shares because they need to hoard cash to survive the credit crunch.
Hedge funds, which are going to cash, to meet demand for year-end redemptions.
That creates across-the-board artificial downward pressure on stocks, and it's the reason cash-rich names such as Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY), Nokia (NYSE: NOK) and Texas Instruments (NYSE: TXN) were selling earlier this week for less than 10 times this year's free cash flow.

Again, that's nirvana for the value investor.




Eric Hair
11.7.08 - 11:24 am

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JB, i'm comfortable enough with my opinions and beliefs to seldom feel the need to insult people that disagree with. especially on the internet with people i see offline.. i don't agree with you or find you credible about any of this but don't really care to argue about it. so l8r..



asparagus
11.7.08 - 11:25 am

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and by alex i mean alex dash -- damnit these headers (and my failed attempts to fix).



azn invazn
11.7.08 - 11:26 am

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oh woo woo gottem!



azn invazn
11.7.08 - 11:26 am

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Let me see if I can fix this HTML mess.

Better?

Robert Shiller, one third of the team that made the Case-Shiller index.





Alex Thompson
11.7.08 - 11:29 am

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I was the one that fuxored the HTML, not the Other Alex.



Alex Thompson
11.7.08 - 11:30 am

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i know you fux0rd with it. i was referring the post when i was telling alex dash about eating chips for lunch. i mean, i guess i could tell you too.



azn invazn
11.7.08 - 11:33 am

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azn, way to go! how'd you do that? clear="all" ?

AT, you suck.



Eric Hair
11.7.08 - 11:35 am

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No, you suck!!



Alex Thompson
11.7.08 - 11:41 am

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For the record, I said:

"He[Ron Paul]'s wrong, and people who argue his points without looking into the matter further sound like idiots."

That's not a personal attack. That's an attack on a vague group, and if anyone chooses to personally affiliate themselves with that group, that's their call.

If, after reading "i'm comfortable enough with my opinions and beliefs to seldom feel the need to insult people that disagree with"
I had said "Oooh, can I get you a saddle for that high horse?", that would have have been a personal attack. But I'm just posing a hypothetical here, so it's not.

As Eric Hair pointed out, it's probably not the best debate strategy though, so I apologize if anyone feels personally offended. I'll try to be more temperate in future posts.

Let's get back to the discussion of whether the economy is going to collapse or not, and how to avoid being personally affected by it.





JB
11.7.08 - 11:54 am

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The only thing about a freedom of information act request is that it applies to United States Government agency. The Federal Reserve Bank is private bank. Although the term of its chairman is Nominated by the United States President and confirmed by the Senate. Don't let the name fool you.



sexy
11.7.08 - 8:06 pm

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OK, we can all see there are problems ahead.

I mean, I can put in "workforce" on google news and get all the layoffs I could possibly want to know about.

Now, whether it turns out that this is much ado about nothing, or AT is right and we're facing systemic collapse, it never hurts to be prepared.

How do you prepare for a post-collapse economy?



JB
11.7.08 - 8:52 pm

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The question you pose - how does one prepare for a depressed economy? - is important. We should all be thinking about this.

As a community though - I'm kind of interested in the question:

Are there collective strategies for coping with a depressed economy?

I'm not necessarily talking about rental co-ops and local currencies. I'm thinking more like how can we extend a helping a hand to one another, in the same way we normally do, but a little further. How can we share the burden around a bit?

I mean - an easy answer is to say "compete better." But saying that is one thing, and doing is another. When it gets down to it, competition is hard. And ultimately we can't all win by competing . . . at least not in a depressed economy. So is there another approach?

I don't have an answer. I'm just posing the question.

I'm going home to the Detroit area later this year - I'll have to get my dad to show me around and see what people are doing there.



Alex Thompson
11.7.08 - 9:07 pm

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Detroit is RIDICULOUSLY cheap right now. I read an article about the real estate crisis a while back, and it's interesting to see what's going on there.

http://www.realtor.com/search/searchresults.aspx?loc=detroit%2c+mi&mnp=1000&mxp=20000&bd=3&bth=4&typ=1

Right now there are 410 single family homes in Detroit with 2 or more bedrooms and 2 or more bathrooms selling for between $1,000 and $20,000. 106 of those are between $1,000 and $5,000.

That's not the down payment, that's the WHOLE price of the house.

If the winters weren't so cold,you could totally set up a fun cycling/sharing community, since you could get some people together and buy a whole neighborhood there for the price of a single small house out here.

If you like the ruin/post-collapse thing, Detroit might be the place for you.
http://detroityes.com/toc.htm





JB
11.7.08 - 11:23 pm

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JB,

I read a report from early October in which analysts attempted to estimate the loss of jobs that would occur from a 50% or 100% contraction of the Big 3 automakers. They estimated that, even though only 200,000 are employed directly by these automakers, the losses would be 1,500,000 in the 50% scenario, and 3,000,000 in the 100% scenario. This is due to the fact that the Big 3 primarily do not produce their own parts, and because auto industry jobs support a lot of other local jobs.

Now we're looking right at that 50% scenario. F U C K. Detroit will get cheaper yet.

Anyhow, a good read on Interfluidity about the ridiculous AIG bailout:

It is so odd, how we are becoming inured to these sums, $150 billion for AIG, $140B in tax breaks to encourage consolidation into bigger and more dangerous banks, the hundreds of billions in equity infusions under the modified TARP plan, etc. The Fed's balance sheet has expanded by more than a trillion dollars over the course of several weeks, almost all of which is used to offer one form or another of covert subsidy to financial firms.



Alex Thompson
11.10.08 - 7:09 pm

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As far as I'm concerned, I don't think the buying of "big-ticket" items will be going on as hard as it has been for the last, several years.

If anything, most will hopefully give up the "Keeping up with the Joneses" mentality and focus on maintaining what they got.

I could see repair industries and companies that supply replacement parts as rolling right along healthfully.

Yeah, the car-companies may suffer big time, but people are still going to have to perform routine maintenance on their vehicles.
Which means spark-plugs, brake pads, air-filters, hoses, tires, etc., will still need to be kept in stock.

Hell, my friend Nathan(Mr. I H8d CRANK Mob) works at Autozone and they've been keeping, or exceeding the same amount of business that they've had in the last 2-3 years.

As for the original posting by Lars Pharell Williams, anyone who can't comfortably survive on a salary of $1000-$2000/month is a fucking, DIVA!!!



bentstrider
11.10.08 - 9:54 pm

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"Time to plant a Victory Garden!"

Midnight Gardenerzz!

Bring some seed packets and a bag of potting soil and an extra water bottle on the rides, and plant/scatter as needed on unkempt medians and empty lots.



JB
11.11.08 - 12:07 pm

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Someone dig up some old Victory Garden flyers so we can PWN them.

Two interesting articles - basically everyone is canceling their jet and ship orders:

Airplanes



A severe shortage in aircraft delivery financing is threatening to leave Airbus and Boeing stranded with perhaps 200 "white-tail" aircraft they can't place with customers.

The aircraft financing crisis comes on top of fears by analysts that 20-30% of Airbus and Boeing backlogs may be at risk as airlines go bust. Exacerbating the situation is that the leasing sector - which both aircraft makers were hoping would help them ride through the storm - also has entered a period of upheaval and restructuring.


Ships



The cancellations follow a collapse in the short-term, spot market rates for dry-bulk ships carrying iron ore, coal, bauxite, wheat and other commodities. The fall Ė of 71.9 per cent in October alone Ė has sent ship values tumbling. Consequently, it is often more worthwhile for shipowners to forfeit their deposits and pay compensation than to go through with deals on which they would never earn a reasonable return.

These are the kind of second order, or "knock on", effects from the financial crisis that many were concerned about. The housing prices collapse which causes a financial crisis. The financial crisis means construction projects can't get financing, so then there is no need to ship as much steel, or as much coal to make coke to make steel - shipping demand collapses. Then there is little need to build new ships, so ship building collapses - but that means there is less need for steel - oh shit, steel falls further. And now the ship making company collapses - more financial trouble.

Each problem knocks on to a new one. Of course, I'm being a little extreme, a little doomer. We will see - things maybe horrific or they might just be bad.



Alex Thompson
11.11.08 - 12:25 pm

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Victory Gardens seem a little extreme right now, but then again, they're a perfect way of sticking it to the mainstream establishment.

Hell, while we're at it, why don't we all take a little trip to Lancaster County, PA.

If anything else, the Amish seem to have survived relatively well without much of anything for the past 300 years.

But, then again, if it weren't for the outsiders with guns, then they wouldn't exactly be here now either.



bentstrider
11.11.08 - 12:26 pm

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For example, from the aircraft piece, this is a optimistic look at the situation:

The lack of bank financing for aircraft could well be an opportunity for some lessors with deep pockets and may accelerate the sector's transformation to a more global business. The roles of some of the long-established leasing companies are likely to become less important and the portion of leased aircraft next year might actually retract. Players such as DAE Capital have tried to achieve quicker market access through sale-and-lease-back transactions than would have been possible by simply waiting for its own aircraft on firm order to be delivered.

If you read that article, it's interesting to see how they're directly connecting the lack of financing for new aircraft with AIG's failure.



Alex Thompson
11.11.08 - 12:29 pm

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dhl is canceling deliveries made in the US -- buy fedex!



azn invazn
11.11.08 - 12:30 pm

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each problem knocks on a new one, isn't that the beauty of an economy?

oh also -- 1) we can provide moral support to the extent possible so people don't go shooting their wives and kids before committing suicide (like that guy in porter ranch -- why does crazy shit always happen in porter ranch?) 2) community/neighborhood gardens are somewhat common in the area i live in ... it's cute



azn invazn
11.11.08 - 12:32 pm

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Perhaps it was one of those sad stories where the husband is the sole, bread-winner and everyone else falls if he does.
Husband loses job, doesn't want to see family suffer, so he chooses Murder-suicide as misguided route to permanent happiness.

If anything, he probably should've forgone the purchase of all those "loan-bought" motor-toys and pickup truck to haul it, five years ago.

Perhaps turned that pistol into something good, take the kids and wife out to the shooting range on the weekends, release some tension, then go bike-riding in the park after shooting.

But, with everyone and their priorities flying in different directions, what are you gonna do?



bentstrider
11.11.08 - 12:58 pm

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fuck



mikeywally
05.2.09 - 11:24 am

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